My two cents on meta composition is this:
The absolute worst meta is where only one viable option exists. That one option even beats massively warped hate squads. Several years ago minis was like that with Rebels; right when I first started playing, it was like that was GOWK. Star Wars CCG, remarkably, has ended up at this place over and over and over again. Let's see, just off the top of my head, Operatives (when they first came out), original V6 Scum, DDM's remarkably broken MBO, WYS(v), Lightside Senate (more than once), that retarded SYCFA deck that blew up every location in the game, and plenty more that I'm sure someone else here could list.
The next worse, again in my opinion, is a true rock paper scissors situation. There are several viable squads, but they all have absolutely-can't-win matchups. Minis has never really been here, I don't think. SWCCG has been there, and is accused of being there pretty much constantly by at least a few people at any given time. Imagine a meta where the only good squads, for whatever reason, where Ithorian Commander swarm, double lancer, and Mando deathshots.
In the first situation, the game turns into a 100% skill competition. Everyone plays the same squad (or loses), so it's all about who plays it better or enjoys better luck. In the second situation, it's a 100% metagaming competition. Your matches are mostly either autowin or autolose, so you just have to focus on not effing it up and hope that your autowins outnumber the autoloses. I think the latter situation is actually much more frustrating, because you end up losing a high percent of games without even really having a chance.
Fortunately, we aren't at either of those places. There are several, many, perhaps even a surfeit of good squads. And those good squads tend to at least be able to fight each other fairly well.
There is a line of thought from sabermetrics that I think is a useful way to think about your complaint, and it's very simple. If you are an underdog, you want to maximize variance. An analog to football would be for the underdog to blitz heavily and throw a lot more passes than normal. It is possible that your blitzes will fail to get to the quarterback and you give up huge gains, or that your own quarterback gets sacked on his seven-step dropback, or throws a bunch of picks. In fact, if you lose the game, you will very likely lose it more badly than you would have by playing conservatively. But, sad fact is, your team is worse. If you and your opponent just have at it, they will win most of the time. Your best shot at winning is to pursue risky strategies and hope that they pay off.
Right now, if I was a less-skilled player who wanted to make some noise in a regional, I'd play Mace. Lord, yes. If I roll enough crits, I will win every game. Is that likely? No. But it's pretty darn likely to work in at least a game or two! Maybe that'll be the game against Jason or Tim! Plus, Mace offers several very good matchups (OR comes to mind), which you can play very conservatively and consistently win. But in bad matchups? You do exactly what Jason did against Matt in PA - you throw Mace down the map, base important people, and cross your fingers. If Jason had rolled one crit, he could have gotten Weir and Thrawn, and the odds of him winning the game skyrocket. He didn't, and he ended up losing the game, but he made the right decision. That isn't a good matchup for him; if both people played conservatively, he would lose most of the time. Being crazy aggressive was exactly the right thing to do. Of course, one problem is that taking huge risks and playing ultra-aggressively is often exactly what less skilled or less experienced players absolutely do not want to do. The fear of being clownstomped or losing like a chump outweighs the increased odds of winning.
The diametric opposite of Mace is the single lancer squad from last year. The entire point of that squad is to guarantee, in almost every game, the following:
1. I will get the last 3+ activations in every round 2. I will get the first activation in every round
The only attackers in that squad are one lancer and two IG-86 droids. That's 62 points of attackers, less than Mace. All the rest is support. All of it! 69% of the squad is to make sure that you achieve Goal 1 and Goal 2, and have the opportunity to maximize the resulting advantages. That is not the squad for a beginner - heck, it isn't the squad for anyone who really wants to enjoy the game. Playing it is nerve-racking and mentally exhausting. Why do you think so few people played it at Gencon after it positively stormed the regionals? Because playing it mostly sucked! The only reason I put up with it was because, played extremely well, it had an enormous edge on almost every other popular squad.
But here's what's funny - at Gencon, because I didn't understand how the Jedi Seer worked, I lost the lancer to it, and Ian won a game that should not have had a prayer in. Because he took me by surprise, he won a nightmare matchup. Funny how that works! Because playing something that no one is familiar with is another way to maximize variability! One person figures your squad out and beats it (or doesn't). But another person doesn't, and - surprise! - "Kavar has Jedi Mind Trick? Ahh, from six squares away!? And save 16?" "Wait, Artoopio has bodyguard?! And he gives the TBSV twin?!" "Wait, that Red Squadron Ace can run 16 squares and twin me?! For forty damage each!?"
I've kind of gotten off topic, but here's the point. Right now, no one knows what is the best squad. There isn't one, at least not yet. No one even knows what the best few squads are. Not yet. And there are a ton of pieces that everyone agrees, at least in theory, are very strong, but that haven't seen regional play yet (Rebel pilots!). So, in some ways, this is a unique opportunity. Find a squad you like, that seems good, and play it. The only meta you really need to worry about is, don't autolose to Mace and Weir! Those are the only really popular squads! Revel in your freedom to play all kinds of nonsense! Deathshots, bombs, Ithorian swarms, why not? It isn't about, try to figure out every squad that someone might play and think about how to beat it. Maybe by Gencon, that'll be possible. But now isn't the time to be worrying about "What random jank squad I never thought of might beat me and how do I prepare for it."
Now is the time to be PLAYING that random jank squad!
(And yes, my appropriate named OR Jank squad from Owensboro is a sparkling example of this principle, seeing as how it probably would have gone .500, at best, at most any other regional.)
And if you don't want to try to break the meta, or at least find holes in it, play Solo Charge.
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GMB from ATL
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