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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 7:56 pm 
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Your first post in the thread seemed very inflamatory on the surface. Go back and reread it absent the context of the later explanations. "invalidate the snot out of every previous set" and "power creep on every level" gives a perception much different and much more "angry" than the later more measured "these guys seem to be consistantly undercosted by a 10% margin and I'm a bit worried" or what I now understand to be your concern. Not blaming you or anything, just trying to explain why my perception was wrong.

Anyway, I like these boards without all the sniping so common to the WotC boards so if any of my comments were percieved as meanspirited rather than just friendly debate (as they are intended) my apologies.

Thanks for offering your pricing. In general, my personal measure (which is entirely debatable) is that there's pretty much a 10% margin of error in costing the figures. So if you put Vader U at the bottom of my range that means 55 or so and a range of error from 50-60 points. Anywhere in there is "close enough for rock and roll" in my book. (Again, reasonable people can disagree here.) Figures that come in at the lower end of their spectrum are the good figures, and those that come in high are the bad ones. A few are even off my chart--for example, I thought the JWM was a typo when released--I thought it was either 29 or 36 before Rob confirmed that 26 was correct (but another issue was involved as later revealed.)

Hopefully that explains better why I can accept your base premise, and even your specific numbers in some cases, but don't see it as a problem.

Vader U is a bit better than Vader IC and Vader CotS so putting him at 55 leaves the "aggressive" cost right in line.

Kazdan is a particularly tough nut to estimate. Droids right now are not so hot, and that could mitigate his value even in the "abusive" squad design. He's pretty clearly priced with getting the Reserves once in a game. How often he gets them twice will be the kicker. And then of course, if an applicable droid is released that's a statistical BEAST he could be an amazing figure. But he'll still be unpredictable.

Uggernaut I think will turn out to be overrated and priced just about right. Of course, Thrawn will be his saving grace as he's the saving grace of many figures. There's a real longrunning debate here about how you price a figure who has access to a great CE. Do you price him to be worthwhile outside of that, or price him to be just right when used with that CE? (Personally, I lean more toward the former, and allowing synergies to create "good" squads but there's certainly room for debate.)


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 8:07 pm 
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NickName wrote:

Kazdan is a particularly tough nut to estimate. Droids right now are not so hot, and that could mitigate his value even in the "abusive" squad design. He's pretty clearly priced with getting the Reserves once in a game. How often he gets them twice will be the kicker. And then of course, if an applicable droid is released that's a statistical BEAST he could be an amazing figure. But he'll still be unpredictable.


I agree with everything except for this. 1st roll = crab droid + BD; then if the 2nd roll happens and the crab is still holding a lot of HP you bring in the BDO and SBDC, if not then bring in another crab with 90 HP to soak damage. It's nasty!!!


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:13 am 
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Jason,

Actually, my "inflammatory" comments you quote came later... and even in those, unless I just was in a pissy mood that day, likely contained measured comments as well.

Regarding Kazdan... the math is the math. If you build to maximize him (which anyone who uses him will), he's potentially devastating. 48% chance of 30 points reinforcements on any given turn is insane. If your opponent isn't capable of putting the smack to you VERY fast, you'll quickly have so much throwweight, it will be near impossible to stop... or, rather, it CAN go that way. Admittedly, if it doesn't, he's pretty unexciting at 55. However, with that percentage, it is pretty likely you'll get 2 reinforcements in a fight.

I'll also point out that even one Dark Trooper II and one BDO is a pretty nice free boost. Even better is the potential to suddenly add 7 activations, which as we know can be a pretty huge impact. And to you Sith... I don't look at the game purely DCI... but EVEN just on a DCI basis, I totally disagree with you on him. Ignoring his reinforcements, he's at least a high 20s figure, based on his powers. In my opinion, it takes only ONE success to make him "even", and every success past that is a huge upside. Given what I describe above, that chance is pretty dang high, if done right... and that makes him potentially great even in DCI. Is he risky? You bet. Will he dominate DCI? No, because eventually the 50/50 chance will fail enough in a row. However, unlike most DCI builds, one with Kazdan can dominate ANYONE on any given game with just a little bit of good luck (50/50 flip three times in your favor = you likely win flat out).

Back to you, Jason... regarding your assertion that a "10% wiggle" is ok... I agree. However, I believe that we're pretty much on the border here... and, more importantly, we haven't seen it all yet... and as stated, my fear is that this is not the "best and brightest". In fact, that's virtually guaranteed if they have any marketing sense (which I believe they do). Hence, my original assertion and comments.

Anyway, at this point it is all moot... they aren't changing stats... so it will be what it is. We'll see what we get... and hopefully it won't be a problem. If it is... well... then we'll see what we see...

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:41 am 
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I don't know.....Kazdan will have to be out toward the battle somewhere in order for the Droid Reinforcements to really make a difference. And if anybody is running Flamethrowers or Grenades, then the Kazdan player will have to spend his first two activations just moving his pieces away from Kazdan so he doesn't get blasted by the multiple-target attack. On top of that, if Kazdan allows himself to be out near the battlefield, he's only going to last so long. A couple of Accurate shooters will do him in quick, with or without some BGDs. In a DCI game, if you get those 30 points even twice, you've already brought in more points than Kazdan is worth. At that point, I don't even care about killing Kazdan. I'll just kill the lower Defense, no Lightsaber Block/Deflect Droids, instead of going after Kazdan. Since he only has Double Attack, and isn't that much of an offensive powerhouse, I don't think I'd mind mixing it up with his Droids for a couple rounds, and winning the game through easy points.

I do see your points, Grambo, but until the full set is revealed, and we've all had some time to actually play with everything, there's honestly no way any of us can have a decent understanding of whether these new figures are good or bad for the game overall. My message consistently to anyone with even the most minor negative outlook on the new set is "wait and see". At least hold off judgment till we know everything. Hopefully, all will make sense. :D

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 7:05 am 
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He's pretty clearly priced with getting the Reserves once in a game.
but how? If he had reinforcements then i would agree, but since his reserves cost points, you are just surrendering even more cheap points.

I think Kazdan is being give way too much credit. In DCI he is going to cost people more games then he is going to win.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 7:40 am 
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You are not doing the math right. It actually comes quite close to 60% chance of getting Reserves with Quiggy and Quinlon. I still don't see him being a big issue.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 10:08 am 
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Sithborg wrote:
You are not doing the math right. It actually comes quite close to 60% chance of getting Reserves with Quiggy and Quinlon. I still don't see him being a big issue.


Ah, point... Quiggy allows rerolls of BOTH recon rolls... correct. So yes, it is far worse then... roughly 60%.

Either way, I was simply trying to answer Nickname's question over what I feel the costs should have been. I stand by my assessments. You're welcome to refute to your heart's content... as they are my opinions, and I've already come to the realization that a significant number of folks on here are zealots that will believe "everything is fine", no matter what is pointed out, we really have no reason to continue the discussion... you're not presenting cogent counters, and I'm not going to convince you with what I've presented. Let's just wait and see what happens, shall we?

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 10:21 am 
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Sorry i have to call this out since it keeps getting thrown in our faces:
Quote:
I've already come to the realization that a significant number of folks on here are zealots that will believe "everything is fine", no matter what is pointed out,
I love it when you guys keep falling back on this same, tired, hypocritical phrase, when you guys are doing the exact same thing if not worse. Win the argument or don't, but dont start calling the other side zealots when you are unwilling to budge as well.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 11:44 am 
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Sithdragon,

Heh... oddly, I AM willing to budge... I just haven't been given any reason to do so. For example, I'll note that today's new figure is absolutely NOT out of line... and makes me feel significantly better, as it represents the first one of this group that isn't, at least in my opinion and based on some reasoned analysis, flatly superior.

I'll also observe that the only counterpoints I've seen, really, have been "well, the old figs suck anyway" or "They've always gotten it right before".... neither of which are based on a reasonable analysis. At least I'm attempting to make an analytical assessment... while folks telling me why our super-reinforcements guy is "totally fine" when, in fact, the math seems to indicate otherwise right now... frankly it seems to back my assessment of some folks.

And I'll ALSO point out that I'm not saying everyone here is a zealot... but there are absolutely a few folks who aren't actually responding with credible or well reasoned arguments. I'll leave you to decide who those are... but I'd love for you to respond with something more concrete... something based on analysis, not just on passion.

Finally, I'd appreciate it if you'd stop lumping me in "pile A". I'm not lumping you in "pile B", though frankly you're begging to be so lumped. I'm interested in one thing only... the health of a game I love. To that end, I question because questioning is good... I reason, because it beats leaping to conclusions... and I discuss, because I value counterpoints and I know that I'm far from always right. However, in the face of folks who aren't doing the same, I freely admit that my tolerance and interest in hearing "their side" goes down dramatically.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:02 pm 
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Grambo wrote:
For example, I'll note that today's new figure is absolutely NOT out of line...


Huh? To which "new figure" are you referring?

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:02 pm 
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Grambo wrote:
I'll also observe that the only counterpoints I've seen, really, have been "well, the old figs suck anyway" or "They've always gotten it right before".... neither of which are based on a reasonable analysis. At least I'm attempting to make an analytical assessment... while folks telling me why our super-reinforcements guy is "totally fine" when, in fact, the math seems to indicate otherwise right now... frankly it seems to back my assessment of some folks.

And I'll ALSO point out that I'm not saying everyone here is a zealot... but there are absolutely a few folks who aren't actually responding with credible or well reasoned arguments. I'll leave you to decide who those are... but I'd love for you to respond with something more concrete... something based on analysis, not just on passion.


Well, I have to say then, it's purely your opinion then that our arguments aren't valid enough for you. At this stage of things, since the set hasn't even released yet, those of us on the opposite side from you really can't make any 'well reasoned arguments'. All we can do is exactly what we've done so far. Take previous experience, and compare it to the current experience, and extrapolate from that.

Like I've said MANY times....once the rest of the set is known...then let's revisit these ideas.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:03 pm 
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Today's figure?

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:03 pm 
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Boris wrote:
Grambo wrote:
For example, I'll note that today's new figure is absolutely NOT out of line...


Huh? To which "new figure" are you referring?


Exactly what I was about to ask! Somebody need to start a new thread? I can't see the WotC boards. :(

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:15 pm 
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Actually, my "inflammatory" comments you quote came later... and even in those, unless I just was in a pissy mood that day, likely contained measured comments as well.


I started on page 1 of this thread and skimmed through it to find your first post to quote it and it was that one, with those two comments and nothing further. So let's just assume the pissy day :D, and maybe your prior comments were in another thread or something. Also possible I missed a post by you but I don't think so.

Quote:
Anyway, at this point it is all moot... they aren't changing stats... so it will be what it is. We'll see what we get... and hopefully it won't be a problem. If it is... well... then we'll see what we see...


Pretty much.

Regarding Kazdan, yup the math is what it is. 50%ish typically starting on Round 3 most likely since very few squads/maps will start round 1 or 2 exposed. You could also camp those rounds and burn QGs FP but that's subpar because you're wasting it on non-Recon-boosted inits so you halve your odds. But from there forward something is gonna die and with over 100 points invested in QG, QV, and Kaz it's likely going to be one of them if you don't already have droids running interference. I just see a lot of mitigating factors in those "free" droids and the requirements of the "abusive" squad designed to generate them. I like the idea of Kaz. He's a serious anti-camping threat because if you let him get 2-3 sets of reserves before you're killing his squad you're in deep trouble. That's a positive--whether the price is quite right, it'll really take gameplay to hammer that out. I tend to worry more about the "sure thing" abilities like Master Tactician, Tow, swap, etc than anything that's a coin flip.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:03 pm 
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Actually, I'm just behind the times... I was referring to the Assassin, which apparently is a promo, and old news. Never mind :)

And yes, Lobo, I totally agree.

And yes, Jason, I'm not saying that Kazdan is somehow better than Thrawn or Tow. I am, however, saying that I think he's undercosted pretty significantly for his power and potential. If we REALLY want to run the math, let's do this...

Round 1 - no recon - 20% chance of reserves.
Round 2 - recon (as you point out anti-camping) - 60% chance of reserves
Round 3 - recon but 50/50 chance one of your augmenters is dead now - 50% chance of reserves
Round 4- recond but assume one of your augmenters is dead and 50/50 another is gone - 30% chance of reserves

Yes, I realize I'm making some guesses here, and am happy to get your thoughts on it. The above math means that, on average, you get 48 points in reserves by the start of Turn 4. That, to me, means that at 55 points he's a freaking bargain of pretty sizable proportions. Feel free to counterpoint... or, as we've both said more than once, ignore and wait for the rest of the set so we can see.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:17 pm 
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Very few situations results in LOS to start round 2. (Note this increases the odds of reserves overall so it's a point in your favor so to speak.) So I think this is more typical:

Round 1 - no Recon - 20% chance of reserves.
(Both squads advance 12 and hide)
Round 2 - no Recon - 20% chance of reserves.
(Kaz squad rushes if necessary to get LOS in final acts)
Round 3 - Recon - 60% chance of reserves
(Full engagement)
Round 4 - Recon but 50/50 chance one of your augmenters is dead now - 50% chance of reserves
Round 5 - Recon but assume one of your augmenters is dead and 50/50 another is gone - 30% chance of reserves


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:43 pm 
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LoboStele wrote:
Boris wrote:
Grambo wrote:
For example, I'll note that today's new figure is absolutely NOT out of line...


Huh? To which "new figure" are you referring?


Exactly what I was about to ask! Somebody need to start a new thread? I can't see the WotC boards. :(


Pre-vooo??


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:55 pm 
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madslaust wrote:
Pre-vooo??


LOL

Well, I think the biggest thing, again, is that if you bring in 48 points of Droids in the first 4 turns, thats 48 points of characters that are easier to kill than Kazdan himself, so that's fine with me.....In a DCI/Gambit/Tournament situation.

I will 100% admit that this guy seems a bit wacky in the kill-em-all scene though. I just don't see him being a problem in the competitive arena. Droids are much easier to kill than Jedi (I guess except if you're running a BH or Jedi Hunter squad).

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:07 pm 
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If I were running him in a DCI setting, I'd probably just bring in a Bodyguard Droid or a Crab Droid and skip the cheap easy-to-kill filler. I'd rather get 20 points worth of Reserves that won't die that round, than 30 points that are free points for my opponent.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:54 pm 
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Kazadan makes me wish Destroyer Droids were good for thier cost now.

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