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SWM March..er..December Madness! TFU Tournament predictions https://www.swmgamers.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1611 |
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Author: | shinja [ Wed Dec 05, 2007 3:07 pm ] |
Post subject: | SWM March..er..December Madness! TFU Tournament predictions |
Now that the brackets and squads have been posted for the VASSAL TFU Tournament (http://swmgamers.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=1130), I thought it would be fun to try to predict the outcome of the games like people do with the NCAA basketball championship bracket in March (in the US). Here are the brackets: http://www.bracketmaker.com/tmenu.cfm?tid=250602 And here are the squads: http://swmgamers.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=11916#11916 Read on if you care about my predictions. For mine, I built a highly-sophisticated (though certainly flawed and incomplete) statistical analysis of each squad, then "played" the statistics against each other. The 7 specific areas I was looking at were: -Activations -Total HP -Average Defense (factors in things like Stealth and Mobile) -Damage Output (formula based on chance to hit 20 Def.) -Support Abilities and Force Powers -% of build points spent on support characters/weak commanders -% of build points spent on characters that can be killed in one shot For squads with Reinforcements, I took the average of the highest possible activations/HP/average Def/Damage Output and the lowest. And factored that into the final amount. So if I were playing my squads against fingersandteeth's squads, I would first look at activations. His LS squad has 8 activations, my DS squad has 7 activations. So he gets 1 point. Hit DS squad has 12 activations, my LS squad has 8 activations, so he gets another point. I repeat this for each statistic I looked at (with the last two % stats, lower is better). In the case of a tie, no one gets points. At the end, the player with more points wins the match. If both players have the same number of points, I disregard the % spent on Support stat (because I think it's the least important) to determine a winner. It's a terrible system that does very little to capture the actual power of one squad versus another. But it's what I came up with to try to make predictions mathematically. Coincidentally (I swear), I ended up winning in my predictions--which is just further proof that my system is totally messed up. I'm not sure if this link will work if you aren't registered with the site, but here are my results: http://www.bracketmaker.com/predict_list.cfm?parent=470454 (Click on Shinja under Predictor). If that doesn't work, here they are in a very difficult to follow manner: Game 1 Billiv15 vs. Zak_Attack Billiv15 wins (9-5) Game 2 LoboStele vs. DarkLordVerjal LoboStele wins (8-6) Game 3 Darth Havok vs. Shinja Shinja wins (7-6) Game 4 fingersandteeth vs. Jedi_Master fingersandteeth wins (8-4) Game 5 thereisnotry vs. sixfootoneder sixfootoneder wins (10-4) Game 6 TK-421 vs. Kast Iron Kast Iron wins (8-6) Game 7 Jedi1972 vs. Boba the Fett Boba the Fett wins (8-6) Game 8 RoqueSaber vs. Empirejeff Empirejeff wins (9-5) Game 9 Zak_Attack vs. DarkLordVerjal Zak_Attack wins (7-6) Game 10 Darth Havok vs. Jedi_Master Darth Havok wins (9-5) Game 11 thereisnotry vs. TK-421 thereisnotry wins (8-6) Game 12 Jedi1972 vs. RoqueSaber TIE (7-7) Roquesaber gets the win Game 13 Billiv15 vs. LoboStele Billiv15 wins (8-5) Game 14 Shinja vs. fingersandteeth Shinja wins (7-6) Game 15 sixfootoneder vs. Kast Iron sixfootoneder wins (10-4) Game 16 Boba the Fett vs. Empirejeff Boba the Fett wins (8-6) Game 17 Zak_Attack vs. Empirejeff Empirejeff wins (7-6) Game 18 Kast Iron vs. Darth Havok Darth Havok wins (9-5) Game 19 thereisnotry vs. fingersandteeth fingersandteeth wins (8-6) Game 20 LoboStele vs. RoqueSaber LoboStele wins (7-5) Game 21 Empirejeff vs. Darth Havok TIE (7-7) Darth Havok gets the win Game 22 fingersandteeth vs. LoboStele LoboStele wins (8-4) Game 23 Billiv15 vs. Shinja Shinja wins (8-6) Game 24 sixfootoneder vs. Boba the Fett sixfootoneder wins (9-5) Game 25 Darth Havok vs. Billiv15 TIE Billiv15 gets the win Game 26 Boba the Fett vs. LoboStele Boba the Fett wins (8-6) Game 27 Billiv15 vs. Boba the Fett Boba the Fett wins (8-6) Game 28 Shinja vs. sixfootoneder Shinja wins (7-6) Game 29 sixfootoneder vs. Boba the Fett sixfootoneder wins (9-5) Game 30 Shinja vs. sixfootoneder Shinja wins (7-6) I barely won my first 2 rounds while sixfootoneder creamed his early opponents. But I ended up beating him twice for the win. Go imaginary me, go! :) Seriously, though, I'm interested in other people's predictions. |
Author: | sixfootoneder [ Fri Dec 07, 2007 7:54 am ] |
Post subject: | |
Dang, you got my hopes up, too. I'll probably lose every game. |
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