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 Post subject: SWM March..er..December Madness! TFU Tournament predictions
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2007 3:07 pm 
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Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:15 pm
Posts: 482
Location: Redmond, WA
Now that the brackets and squads have been posted for the VASSAL TFU Tournament (http://swmgamers.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=1130), I thought it would be fun to try to predict the outcome of the games like people do with the NCAA basketball championship bracket in March (in the US).

Here are the brackets: http://www.bracketmaker.com/tmenu.cfm?tid=250602

And here are the squads: http://swmgamers.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=11916#11916

Read on if you care about my predictions.

For mine, I built a highly-sophisticated (though certainly flawed and incomplete) statistical analysis of each squad, then "played" the statistics against each other. The 7 specific areas I was looking at were:
-Activations
-Total HP
-Average Defense (factors in things like Stealth and Mobile)
-Damage Output (formula based on chance to hit 20 Def.)
-Support Abilities and Force Powers
-% of build points spent on support characters/weak commanders
-% of build points spent on characters that can be killed in one shot

For squads with Reinforcements, I took the average of the highest possible activations/HP/average Def/Damage Output and the lowest. And factored that into the final amount.

So if I were playing my squads against fingersandteeth's squads, I would first look at activations. His LS squad has 8 activations, my DS squad has 7 activations. So he gets 1 point. Hit DS squad has 12 activations, my LS squad has 8 activations, so he gets another point. I repeat this for each statistic I looked at (with the last two % stats, lower is better). In the case of a tie, no one gets points. At the end, the player with more points wins the match. If both players have the same number of points, I disregard the % spent on Support stat (because I think it's the least important) to determine a winner.

It's a terrible system that does very little to capture the actual power of one squad versus another. But it's what I came up with to try to make predictions mathematically. Coincidentally (I swear), I ended up winning in my predictions--which is just further proof that my system is totally messed up. I'm not sure if this link will work if you aren't registered with the site, but here are my results: http://www.bracketmaker.com/predict_list.cfm?parent=470454 (Click on Shinja under Predictor).

If that doesn't work, here they are in a very difficult to follow manner:

Game 1
Billiv15 vs. Zak_Attack
Billiv15 wins (9-5)

Game 2
LoboStele vs. DarkLordVerjal
LoboStele wins (8-6)

Game 3
Darth Havok vs. Shinja
Shinja wins (7-6)

Game 4
fingersandteeth vs. Jedi_Master
fingersandteeth wins (8-4)

Game 5
thereisnotry vs. sixfootoneder
sixfootoneder wins (10-4)

Game 6
TK-421 vs. Kast Iron
Kast Iron wins (8-6)

Game 7
Jedi1972 vs. Boba the Fett
Boba the Fett wins (8-6)

Game 8
RoqueSaber vs. Empirejeff
Empirejeff wins (9-5)

Game 9
Zak_Attack vs. DarkLordVerjal
Zak_Attack wins (7-6)

Game 10
Darth Havok vs. Jedi_Master
Darth Havok wins (9-5)

Game 11
thereisnotry vs. TK-421
thereisnotry wins (8-6)

Game 12
Jedi1972 vs. RoqueSaber
TIE (7-7)
Roquesaber gets the win

Game 13
Billiv15 vs. LoboStele
Billiv15 wins (8-5)

Game 14
Shinja vs. fingersandteeth
Shinja wins (7-6)

Game 15
sixfootoneder vs. Kast Iron
sixfootoneder wins (10-4)

Game 16
Boba the Fett vs. Empirejeff
Boba the Fett wins (8-6)

Game 17
Zak_Attack vs. Empirejeff
Empirejeff wins (7-6)

Game 18
Kast Iron vs. Darth Havok
Darth Havok wins (9-5)

Game 19
thereisnotry vs. fingersandteeth
fingersandteeth wins (8-6)

Game 20
LoboStele vs. RoqueSaber
LoboStele wins (7-5)

Game 21
Empirejeff vs. Darth Havok
TIE (7-7)
Darth Havok gets the win

Game 22
fingersandteeth vs. LoboStele
LoboStele wins (8-4)

Game 23
Billiv15 vs. Shinja
Shinja wins (8-6)

Game 24
sixfootoneder vs. Boba the Fett
sixfootoneder wins (9-5)

Game 25
Darth Havok vs. Billiv15
TIE
Billiv15 gets the win

Game 26
Boba the Fett vs. LoboStele
Boba the Fett wins (8-6)

Game 27
Billiv15 vs. Boba the Fett
Boba the Fett wins (8-6)

Game 28
Shinja vs. sixfootoneder
Shinja wins (7-6)

Game 29
sixfootoneder vs. Boba the Fett
sixfootoneder wins (9-5)

Game 30
Shinja vs. sixfootoneder
Shinja wins (7-6)

I barely won my first 2 rounds while sixfootoneder creamed his early opponents. But I ended up beating him twice for the win. Go imaginary me, go! :)

Seriously, though, I'm interested in other people's predictions.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2007 7:54 am 
Sith Apprentice
Sith Apprentice

Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:13 pm
Posts: 299
Dang, you got my hopes up, too. I'll probably lose every game. :)

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rate my squads and listen to ska!
http://www.swshoebox.com/userSquad.cfm? ... footoneder

Grambo wrote:
the best defense is a dead opponent.


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