Fair enough, hence why I was so hesitant in my statement. Though I'm thinking I'm seeing a pattern still...which I'll explain in a sec.



Between games of equal level players (or close), it usually comes down to a key init roll. As far as I know, this hasn't changed since the very beginning of SWM. Why would this change now? Do hate squads for Tier 1 squads normally not need the key initiative or two to win, assuming player skill is equal (honest question)?



I have read that thread; still failing to see where the game doesn't usually come down to key inits, or ridiculous rolling. I also resent being told what I have and have not read.



Yes, but if that's a Speedy Cannon squad that makes those mistakes, does he still pull out the win based on squad strength. Part of a squad's strength is its' ability to recover from mistakes. GOWK can sometimes get away completely after being left in the open. Rex/Dash, not so much. GOWK has put big shooter squads on the sideline, so melee bands are starting to come back out. Why doesn't Malak run into the same problem that he did pre GOWK, ie, things with a gun start blasting him to kingdom come?



I have been looking at it, and it looks kind of interesting. Sith/OR are still dependent on their last great hopes (Maul/Exile) to be truly competitive in Tier 1 (in my opinion). But one thing I've noticed about SWM is that once we think we have the meta figured out, something usually shows up that most didn't see coming, and forces a shift. So I'm content to sit back and wait for a couple of months after JA.




I dunno...I think the Mandalorian, Sith, and Old Republic factions may have something to say about that. It is really interesting that Bill dropped Dodonna, and maybe it has something to do with our meta, but I think many people would agree that the huge disadvantage Mandalorians have is Dodonna going "haha, no opportunist for you scouts!". I actually like San Hill/Ozzel, because they force a trade-off. Dodonna really doesn't. It's just completely unnecessary power creep to me.



Nah, it doesn't look like much in JA (pending the final pieces to be unveiled) will do much against GOWK. I just meant in general. NR will have a lot more options, for instance. Though with our luck, watch Maul turn into ObiPwnage or something. :-p



Yes, but to the uninitiated/naive, all I see are (most) people re-confirming their own opinions they had before the tournaments started. I don't pretend to know who is right or wrong (nor do I care too much), but outside of FnT, who has really changed their minds due to regionals? (Understand I have to do statistical analysis for a living, so I tend to be very discriminating and assuming the worst when it comes to trends).

I'm just looking forward to the DCI update on July 1st, one way or another, this will hopefully be over.

Well, I guess it helps to know the history, which would be tough, unless you have a photographic memory and have read every tourney report I've ever posted. Which I shouldn't expect of you. So let me say this, and StriderRe80 can back me up on it. Some of it has to do with his play skill improving, but a lot of it is GOWK. Pre-GOWK, if I sat down to play against Strider at the LGS, I knew going into the game I had probably about a 95% chance of winning the game. Sometimes, I wouldn't even have to exert that much mental energy on the game, just wait for him to make a mistake, and then capitalize on it. With GOWK now, that's pretty well evened out to about 50/50. Of the last three games I've played against him, I'm 2-1 (he was playing GOWK each time, I was playing one of the counters). The loss was with the Vong counter, the two wins were with Rebel Push and B&B. The B&B game wasn't all that close, but he made some mistakes, and it still could've gone his way if I'd been unlucky enough to miss the last attack I made on GOWK with Vader (which I needed an 8 to kill him, and I'd already hit him with the first attack, so the odds were actually against me at that point). The game with Rebel Push was 100% due to a key init win, and Strider was playing a sub-par GOWK build that time as well.

So, there's a bit better history for ya. In the case of my games against Strider, it really isn't a case of players of equal skill. And yeah, sure I may have pulled out the wins against him a few times, but it was all luck. And when it comes down to GenCon, or even the final game of a Regional, you can't place your bets on your opponent being of lesser skill.



OK. I wasn't trying to say that you hadn't read it, though I can see why my statement would've come off that way. Should've worded it differently I guess. I can't keep track of who posted in that thread (or other threads) and who hasn't, and your comments seemed to very closely mirror those of a lot of people who haven't been involved in the conversations. So it seemed to me that you either hadn't read the thread, or at least you weren't interpreting the data the way the many of the rest of us are.



Maybe, maybe not. But honestly, GOWK makes Rex and Dash into monster shooters, and if a Malak squad can stand up to those two, then I wouldn't be surprised to see that same squad be able to deal with other things as well. Remember, the keys to that Malak squad were actually Dash and the TBSV/Jarael combo, not Malak himself. In a game against other heavy shooters, especially ones with Accurate, Malak would stay back a bit more. But the reason we haven't seen Malak squads like that previously, is that Dash and the TBSV only just came out, and immediately got dumped into the GOWK-meta, thus being slightly overshadowed. I really applaud Ben for coming out with a novel idea and doing well with it.

I dunno...I think the Mandalorian, Sith, and Old Republic factions may have something to say about that. It is really interesting that Bill dropped Dodonna, and maybe it has something to do with our meta, but I think many people would agree that the huge disadvantage Mandalorians have is Dodonna going "haha, no opportunist for you scouts!". I actually like San Hill/Ozzel, because they force a trade-off. Dodonna really doesn't. It's just completely unnecessary power creep to me.

Those Factions certainly have trouble against Mandalorians, but I can attest that one of our local guys, James, one of our top players, he used Mandos pretty much every single week since they came out, and even up till right after IE came out, he was still using them. He's done exceptionally well with them. He'd win a 150 night with Boba MC, 2 Scouts, and then a ton of activations so that he didn't have to worry about the San/Dodonna builds. So there are ways to work around the tempo control issues. And again, as I said before, the existence of the Lancer and Yobuck serve to scare people who would run a ton of activations and utilize pieces like San or Dodonna to severely out-activate opponents. So while Dodonna still remains a strong figure, the look of those squads has changed some, and is not so much based around 1 or 2 power pieces with a ton of activations, but is now instead 3-4 mid-level pieces. So the overall activation count for most top-tier San/Dodonna squads has dropped recently.

To top it all, the Mando Scout getting Opportunist isn't what makes them so powerful, IMO. It's their Double/Twin/GMA combined with Cloaked. Even if they aren't getting Opportunist, that Double/Twin allows them to have a good chance at killing just about any fodder pieces you lay out there. And if you run Boba MC too, now you've got something to scare your opponents into activating those bigger pieces so that Boba doesn't hit them with Cunning. It's all about building the squad right and forcing your opponent to play on your terms. The beauty of San/Dodonna/Ozzel builds is that activating last often times forces your opponent to play on your terms, and that's where their strength comes from. The key is just learning how to run other squads and counter-act that advantage by forcing some of your own terms when possible.

For me, it's probably just the fact that I have a LOT of experience running San Hill, having placed in the top 8 with him two years now. And I'm used to facing either San or Dodonna at least once every single week, so he really doesn't bother me anymore.



I'd love to see that. As long as it doesn't mean that Maul is over-powered in other ways. Then perhaps the ban of GOWK would only last a short while.



Well, for the most part, yes, you're going to see the majority of people re-confirming their opinions. But I think that's simply because most of us had our opinions formed already, a month ago or so, lol.

I know StriderRe80 is another one who jumped sides, though it was a couple weeks ago when he first said so. He was initially opposed to the ban, but after he played a couple games with GOWK, and watched me play him at the LGS, he's become convinced as well that the ban is what's healthy for the game overall.



I'll raise a toast to you on that, brother. I'd like to see this dark period behind us, including not just the GOWK stuff, but all the other things causing flared tempers around the forums as of late.

I often challenge this position, because the situation required for it does not exist generally. Almost always, there are plenty of factors that help determine an outcome, well before that final init. I rarely, if ever, even when playing against good equal level opponents have games come down to a final init. In fact, generally the only times it does so, I have screwed up something or multiple things earlier.

Point of fact. My three closes games at Gencon in 2008 were against Lou, Matt Hansen and of course MtMagus who I lost to in Swiss. In Magus' game, I lost in 15 minutes. In Lou's game, it came down to the wire, but it wasn't init that won it, it was my last attack piece hitting and his missing. In my game with Matt Hansen, init had little to do with it at the end (I had lost a key one earlier, and then was saved by some missed attacks). I won by a clever ruse.

Perhaps not those specific mistakes against that meta, but in another meta, sure it would have. I've pointed this out many times. Matt went 1-3, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3 in the four tournaments he ran speedy cannon before Gencon. He then went 7-0 in swiss, and 8-1 overall for 3rd place. Even in the case of GOWK, I am not arguing that the best players aren't going to win. I am arguing the opposite actually. I think the meta is even easier to beat now, than it has ever been. As a top player, my choice of squad is simple. I play GOWK, and if I play it better than everyone else, and the dice don't fail me, I will win Gencon again this year.

I disagree. An ability to recover only matters if you make major mistakes to begin with. Generally speaking, squads that spend points on defensive abilities that allow them to "recover" are not as strong as those that can go without. Its not necessarily a huge difference, but recovery isn't a significant factor in most games at the top levels, or at least not based on the squad itself. Its the player that can recover a "lost" game, not the squad in most cases.

I've done it two years in a row, come back from a 1-2nd round disintegration to win the game. 2007, it was Han Scoundrel, in 2008 is was my Speeder.

Actually, Ben's been running that squad for a while now, and he adapts it to the current meta. It wasn't a true "GOWK counter" at all. He would run it against anything, and count on playing better than you to win. IT's a squad that very much fits his playstyle, even if it isn't optimized.

That has not been my experience generally. I think we do tend to "find" most everything. There are times when a given build does better than expected, but it's rarely all that surprising. I think the closest example I can think of is the Landspeeder at Gencon 07. A lot of people were surprised by it, but I know Matt and I had tested with it and against it, so it wasn't a shocker to us. Other than that, I don't remember there being a major shocker.

Well, I have explained it in the past, but I think it illuminates something here, so I'll do it again. Think of my statement above, where I mentioned that the ability to recover wasn't completely necessary for a squad to be great.

So we have two SCs, one with Dodonna, and one with a Human BG.

Dodonna allows the ability to outactivate, react, and ultimately, to be able to recover better. I agree, it does all of those things quite well. For example when playing against San Hill, without Dodonna, a placement mistake will cost you a key figure, and you won't be able to react once you are activated out.

The HBG on the other hand, not only covered me for Disintegration, it allowed me to spread damage around, and keep my key pieces alive that extra round, which meant I was doing more damage than the Dodonna squad in general, provided I didn't make the early phase placement mistakes mentioned above.

In addition, if I am capable of playing it just as well without Dodonna, it would be silly of me to not use that space for the extra help that a BG brings.

So in terms of overall strength, my squad, when played by me (or MtMagus) was stronger than the Dodonna variant played by Robin at Pax, but it was also less forgivable to mistakes. I take that trade off, and try to play perfectly if I can in most cases. I played numerous games against opposing Dodonnas and Sans (don't think I played an Ozzel last year), and I won all of them. I simply apply most of the strategies I've talked about over the years and in my articles and played my best games.

So take that for what it's worth. I know Robin said he didn't think he could win without Dodonna for the PAX meta (which had Mando Scouts legal) and that's a fair decision. Different players will have different strengths and different results with the same exact stuff. It happens all the time. It's what makes this prediction stuff so difficult. I won Gencon with Speedy Cannon, but outside of Matt and I, would another player have won with it, if we weren't there? Would that same player have been better off with Dodonna?

[/quote][/quote]Hard to change your mind when you are right to begin with (that's a joke btw). I'm being as objective as possible, but recognizing that it's an impossibility to be so in truth. I believe the reality shows that we are being proven right, as more and more people are coming over to the ban side. I don't think that's a coincidence, I think it's based on people seeing the merit in what we are saying, and seeing it for themselves in practice.

I am the competitor that ran the YV warmaster team, and I would like to make some comments.

I expected to see GOWK and GOWK-hate (mostly Rebel push and Empire Palpy) with sprinkling of other good teams (GGDAC, SS). SInce my son was using my GOWK, I decided to play a good aggravation squad to the anti-GOWK and brought YV.

I have played JH with YC but they do have enough attack to hit non-jedi. Therefore I added (the expensive) WM to provide momentum and the Advanced Agent for cunning. If positioned correctly with mouse droids and Shaper, the JH can hit for up to 21A and 50D twin on jedi and 17A for 40D on others. In 5 games, I got off at least 8 of these types of attacks.

I agree with F&T:
"Maxed out vong squads don't really exist IMO. JH swarms generally get locked out and/or outpointed, Nom/bombs get out pointed unless your opponents are unfamiliar with them. The issue is not enough fast dmg potential. Vong have always been the classic spoiler squad. Everyone says you can't run blah blah because of the vong but the vong have never been something top guys play. They are far too fallable. No vong squad is above t2 IMO."

This team is about the max that you can get for YV. Against Palpy and Pushy, I stand a chance. Against GOWK (Jonny), it probably loses 90%. Against Engineer's Pushy, superior tactics and bad map (Death Star) exposed the MAJOR limitations of the YV.

On top of that, looking at this report, where GOWK was 12-3, 2 of the 3 losses were to another GOWK army! So out of 15 games, a GOWK only lost to a non-GOWK army once.



So I take this to mean that the champion managed to go 5 rounds without facing one of the GOWK armies?

yeah, there were 3 and they all played each other leaving me a GOWK free path.

thems the breaks i'm afraid.

Ah hah, now this makes more sense. Originally, it seemed to me as if you had two fairly evenly matched players playing to an equivalent draw across three games.



Eh, no biggie, as I said earlier to Dean (and Bill later on), the internet doesn't do tone well. I try to ask for clarification on tone (and I didn't there, so I apologize) before I get offended. I am interpreting the data a little differently, but I also view anything with probability and statistics involved very differently then most people, and I often over-analyze the hell out of something into non-usefulness. (I've built probabilistic spreadsheets at work about various squad matchups, making some basic assumptions about amount of time in cover, times to get shot at, etc...yay for stupidly ridiculously powerful software!)



Trust me, Joel and I were about to start dancing when we saw Sith had gotten 4th.
I think the weakness of the squad is that Rex and Dash don't have accurate shooters, so you can essentially force them to shoot what you want. Once GOWK is gone, accurate shooters come back, and all of a sudden, all of those pieces are vulnerable to one double tap from Han + Bothan/Leia. I agree with FnT that it goes back to Han Cannon + NR + mobile firepower if GOWK goes away.



We have a ton of Yobuck/Rebels at our meta, so Scouts tend to not fair well there. Lancer eats them alive, while as Rebels out-activate and run in each round. I myself have significant trouble with tempo control, so go figure. Also, Sith, OR, and Mandos are my favorite factions, so there was a healthy bit of "damnit, why do you all suck." :-p



Aye, I'm just starting to use Ozzel with B&B (I am just giddy of the idea of waltzing in, murdering something, and waltzing out).



I'm fairly apathetic to the ban; I just don't like it because it seems its ignoring the larger issue, namely, SSM. Also, if Rob did plan for GOWK to completely shift the meta the way it has, and has compensated for it in the upcoming sets (though JA better have one hell of a bunny to pull out in the last 7 pieces), banning GOWK could horrifically screw things up.

Now its funny, because locally, GOWK has actually gotten a lot of players who might have left after being repeatedly slaughtered to keep coming back. They don't ever win, but the matches seem closer, and so they seem more interested in playing. Eventually we start showing them other pieces, factions, etc...I'd say it's grown the game at our LGS by at least 3-4 consistent players. I do like the idea of putting really powerful pieces in the starters; you should be able to have the basics of a Tier 1/1.5 squad in a starter. That way, people aren't put off by the high cost of entry. Gateway drugs for the win!



Amen.

So someone shouldn't look at your army and claim, "That beats GOWK!" based on these tournament results.

When you consider win-loss records and final placement, obviously total points or other tie-breakers were important. Simplify things a little and it help illustrate the results in a more practical way.

Placing - Win-Loss Ratio (approximate # of players in this place)
1st place - 5-0 (1 player) <- didn't face GOWK
2nd place - 4-1 (5 or 6 players) <- all three GOWK were in this group
3rd place - 3-2 (6 or 7 players)
4th place - 2-3 (6 or 7 players)
5th place - 1-4 (5 or 6 players)
6th place - 0-5 (1 player)

Excellent post IMO.

See that was the point I was making. JA could change a lot of things in the Meta and that was my point about getting worked up about GOWK. I don't pretend to be an expert but I am one who would rather worry about GOWK after waiting a few weeks after JA to see how it shakes up GenCon.



Now, to Billiv15, let me be the first to extend an apology for the previous post's grating language I was VERY tired and frustrated due to me getting 4 hours of sleep, working two hours extra, and being so stressed about trying to fall asleep (had to be up at 2:45) when I made that post my frustration and nausea translated into my post. Also, I am posting usually on my little phone keyboard so often my posts aren't always the most legible. And as Cybit said it isn't uncommon for internet posts to be misconstrued which I see now was what happened with my reading of your post.

And yes we do have a World Champion playing here, MarkIV, won GenCon a few years back (he used to live in Texas but moved up here). The PAX championship wasn't a world championship lol I agree because I live here and I didn't even know it was going on and from the squads I saw played it is not a shock speedy cannon won it (I think Exar, Mandos, and even a Kel Dor/Jabba squad was present....just odd stuff). Badly handled communication there for sure...16 people is what we get a week up at my LGS more often then not.

I wasn't talking about all 3 regionals when I was discussing GOWK having an easy field I was just saying for the Wisconsin regional where only perhaps half dozen or so non GOWK squads there actually had a realistic chance to beat him. I in no way am taking the Malak win away, I love the squad and something akin to it was actually one of the squads I was considering.

Again I promise not to post while in a semi-conscious state lol...I apologize for any disruption or ill feelings that were spread because of my lack of tact and obvious inability to read (as fingers aptly pointed out).

no hard feeling here Joelker,

Hell we talk things out here. No crazy modding from an Orc coming... so generally here we work things out.

As for you I have played you on vassal and know you are good guy so I didn't take too much from your post that is why made the rumble joke.

By the way for the younger crowd:

A rumble is a fight. Term used in the 50's and 60's. So yes only old farts like myself recognize the term.

Heh, one of the things that pointed itself out in that giant probability sheet is how many of those games turn on the last big "event". That last init, that last attack, etc...the way that occurs is because normally, the "big events" square out evenly in favor of both sides. Hence why, throughout a game, after a couple of rounds, you can see how the game will shape out later on. Rex towing in and annihilating a piece versus missing 2 out of 4 versus missing 4 out 4 significantly change how things play out. I know this seems like common sense, but it's fascinating as all hell when looked at from a mathematical point of view.



Interesting question: Isn't that always the case? The best player (as defined by making the fewest mistakes) playing the best squad (as having the best matchups in the meta of the tournament). I guess the question is, what makes GOWK any different in that scenario then say, B&B, or San's Shooters, etc?



Ahhh. This makes more sense if you're used to not making mistakes at all.




Ahhh, ok, makes more sense now.



K. I have not seem much in the way of SWM cycles, so I'll take your word for it.



Ahhh. That makes much more sense now. This also illustrates a good point about extremely high level play versus all other levels; there are certain assumptions you make when building a squad that aren't necessarily valid if you are assuming neither you or your opponent will make a mistake. Though I wonder with OppoThrawn running around, whether Speedy Cannon would have Dodonna now.



Heh, I guess in the end, it comes down to Dean, NN, and Rob anyway.

Thanks, I found it funny that GOWK vs Serenno 'serious' battle turned into 'oh hey, that would be fun, I'll try that move' lol, most fun I have had in a game in a while. I was just lucky you didn't have Betrayal with all the 1s Dooku was dishing out, although that was pretty evened out by Dash's 'I can evade 4 shots in a row' lol!

As Cybit can attest, I am often in a strange mood after playing Minis/working so hopefully with that realization I can keep the verbal vomit to myself.

He never won Gencon. 05 sparks 06 eric 07 Dr diot 08 Billiv. I guess Deri won something since Bill has called him a Gencon champ in the past.


Well i had by for the hardest SOS if your going by squads not even who won the game. GOWK vs Push, GOWK vs GOWK, GOWK vs GOWK,GOWK vs Vong, GOWK vs NR( ok this on had GOWK winning but I have played this guy for the past 4 years so I know how he plays. He likes fun squads never builds top tier squads)

Side note. Tim, Steve,Fred,and Pat are all pretty good players just didnt want to play top squads or didnt know the meta. Nate didnt have san in his 86 squad doesnt have him. Steve was good around ROTS but stopped playing and doesnt understand the meta but he is a really good gamer. Tim just likes to play minis he hasnt played before and doesnt try top squads since our store is mainly kids. this is the same thing with Fred and Pat they dont play top tier stuff much because their store is mainly kids and dont get to practice tier 1 squads a lot. Well thats my take on it.

I play all over the place(Janesville,Madison,Vassal,Chicago,Niles,then matt/Bill) So i understand stores and meta a little bit better than most. I have not found a good counter for GOWK even a good Map counter(aka hoth vs mtb). When there is a top squad out there I can find a good overall squad that can play with most that take people by surprise I have not found anything like that with GOWK thats why I say ban him.

Bill calls Deri a Gencon Champ for a very good reason.

In 05 or 06 I dont remember Deri won the 150 tourney the day before the big tourney. The thing was the tourney Deri won actually had either the same amount of players or more than the big event the following day.

So that is why.

That is just like I know that Lou and I both enjoy the fact in 2007 we both finished the 200 tourney undefeated with 46 players. We both are waiting for the playoffs for it and none has been scheduled.

Dean I knew it was something like that I just forgot what it was.
@Lobo well its pretty hard to be at the same level as Matt,Bill,Eric and Deri. I put all 4 in the top 20. Side note though I can keep up with them I just lose from being less skilled and only playing DCI for a year.

Wasn't there an '04 tournament in SoCal?

If it was 04 only rebel storm was made come on. well was it 05 or 06 since it makes a difference. If it was 05 but before indy 05 who cares since gambit wasnt made yet. if it was after indy 05 then how many people were there and what did he win. what was the event even called. well there was a 04,05 and 06 socal gencon if markIV is so called a gencon champ why dont we have 2 socal champs not just one.

I can ask him tonight (or whenever I see him next). I think he mentioned something about Rebel Storm being the only set out, so it was probably that first 100 point tournament...Kill Them All in 2004, I think?

Nah, don't bother. Generally, a nice word vomit leads to a good discussion, additional clarification, and often new insights into the game and the other posters. I think this has been a very productive conversation, that may not have happened if you didn't speak up.

That's why we run this place this way. Sure, sometimes we can get a little out of hand, but we always bring it back around. I speak for myself here, but I very much enjoy debating with you guys, and like hearing your insights. You learn more from disagreement than just letting something go, at least that's my experience.

So by all means, continue to speak up, and even if you go a little too far sometimes (we all do, we all will), here you aren't going to get modded or banned, we will simply berate you publicly as necessary to get you back in line J/K.

I call Deri (Fingersandteeth) a former Gencon champ because in 2006, we had two large 150pt tournaments. There was a Friday event with 40-50, and a Sat one with 40-50. I took second both times, losing in the last game. On Fri, I lost to Deri. On Sat I lost to Engineer. Deri didn't play on Sat as he had to leave, and Eric didn't arrive until Friday night, so they never played each other that weekend. I believe the competitive level of each event was equal. And if we can call STSparks the 2005 Champ (25 players I think it was), then I think we can agree that both Eric and Deri were champs in 2006. At least that has always been my take on it.

As for the 2004 SoCal Gencon, and MarkIV, I don't know anything about it. Generally we have never considered that anything official, as it wasn't DCI, there it was pre-gambit, it certainly didn't have the draw of later events, and there were what, 1 set released? I don't really care honestly, what he calls himself, but I am not calling that the "world champ". I don't even call myself that, or any of the others. I usually say "Gencon Champ" if anything.

But I would like to know more about that particular tournament, as I have never been able to get any information on it.

And btw, 2004 Gencon did not have a tournament that I am aware of (game release tourney only I think). Perhaps you can enlighten us with more information about it.

well there have been France and England Gencon I dont know if there were events there but I would think there would of been events there. If so I dont see them being called Gencon winners. What about the 05 and 06 socal winners never heard anything about them.